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The first four days of the NCAA tournament are famous for upsets. But after that, things are supposed to settle down a bit, right?
Think again. If you remember last year, when a No. 7 seed defeated a No. 8 seed in the national championship game, you know not to simply pencil in the favorites in the Sweet 16.
This year, we have a mix of sleepers who could make the Final Four thanks to a wide-open bracket, undefeated teams who are still looking to cruise and wild cards who aim to keep dancing.
Here’s a breakdown of the upset possibilities in the Sweet 16.
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When: Thursday at 7:15 p.m. ET (CBS)
The Betting Line: Wichita State -1
The Challenge: Containing Wichita State’s Fred VanVleet*
Wichita State has looked like a team on the mission so far, and a lot of that has to do with Fred VanVleet’s stellar performances. In two NCAA tournament games, the junior has 44 points, eight rebounds, 10 assists and six steals.
“It’s clear after 80 minutes of basketball in this NCAA tournament, the Shockers will go as far as VanVleet leads,” Mitch Sherman of ESPN wrote.
The Noteworthy Numbers
On the surface, this is a classic battle between offense and defense—Notre Dame is 12th in the nation in scoring and second in field-goal percentage, while Wichita State is eighth in the nation in points allowed.
But Wichita State’s offensive surge this tournament is the reason the Shockers are still dancing, particularly their 50 percent accuracy from three-point land in the win over No. 2 Kansas in the round of 32.
It’ll be up to Notre Dame’s Jerian Grant and Co. to up their offensive production from the last couple of games and grab defensive rebounds to take away second chances from the Shockers.
The X-factor: Emotions
Wichita State is coming off an extremely emotional affair where the team finally was able to face and beat Kansas, the team’s in-state “rival” that it hadn’t faced since 1993.
Meanwhile, Notre Dame won a very physical round-of-32 game over Butler in overtime, only to find out afterwards that coach Mike Brey’s mom had died of a heart attack that morning.
Whichever team can harness its emotions in a positive way will ultimately have an edge Thursday.
Upset Meter Reading: 4.9/10
*Keep in mind that since Notre Dame is the underdog according to Vegas, this will be focused on how Notre Dame can get the upset over Wichita State, despite the seedings.
Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images
When: Thursday at 7:47 p.m. ET (TBS)
The Betting Line: Wisconsin -3.5
The Challenge: Winning the rebounding battle
The North Carolina Tar Heels are one of the best rebounding teams in the country, standing second in rebounds per game (12th in offensive rebounding, 10th in defensive rebounding). However, Wisconsin has one of the best centers in the game, Frank Kaminsky, who averages eight rebounds and 18.2 points per game.
These two teams have very contrasting styles—the Tar Heels play a fast-paced, frenetic game, while Wisconsin is physical and methodical. If North Carolina wants to set the pace and rattle the Badgers, it’s going to have to get the rebounds.
The Noteworthy Numbers
Marcus Paige is the leader for UNC, and he has continued a trend this tournament of having a dormant first half and an explosive second half. In the round-of-32 win over No. 5 Arkansas, Paige scored 20 of his 22 points in the second half.
“If I could play just as well in the first half as I do in the second half, I would prefer to do that, but sometimes it happens that way,” Paige said, as reported by The Associated Press (via ESPN). “I just try to help my team win, and in big moments I feel like I get put in a position to succeed by my teammates that do a great job screening for me and looking for me.”
The X-factor: Kennedy Meeks
Meeks was injured late in the round-of-32 game against Arkansas. While initial reports are that it’s only a sprained knee, he is undergoing further testing this week, and his status for Thursday’s game is currently unknown.
The sophomore forward provides crucial size and aggression inside for the Heels, and their upset chances decrease substantially if he can’t suit up.
Upset Meter Reading: 5.8/10
Jamie Sabau/Getty Images
When: Thursday at 9:45 p.m. ET (CBS)
The Betting Line: Kentucky -12.5
The Challenge: Keeping up with Kentucky
Let’s be honest: The Kentucky Wildcats are still significant favorites to win the tournament, and it would be a mammoth upset if the West Virginia Mountaineers were able to foil that plan.
West Virginia does have a gritty defense, but the key will be to keep up with Kentucky offensively, particularly midway through the second half; that’s when the Wildcats have a habit of taking games over. This won’t be a game that a late comeback can win—the Mountaineers must stay within striking distance the entire game.
The Noteworthy Numbers
Kentucky is better than West Virginia in virtually every statistical category, except for one: steals. The Mountaineers lead the nation in steals, averaging 10.9 per game. In their round-of-32 win over Maryland on Sunday, they had 15.
Forcing turnovers and turning them into points might be the only way to truly rattle the undefeated Wildcats.
The X-factor: Juwan Staten
Devin Williams has done a great job filling in for Staten as he has been injured or less than his best, but there’s no way West Virginia will topple the undefeated Wildcats unless their leading scorer is at his best.
Staten averaged 14.5 points per game this season and was a significant threat from outside—something Williams is certainly not. The Mountaineers need him in top form, physically and mentally, on Thursday to even have an outside shot.
Upset Meter Reading: 1.0/10
Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images
When: Thursday at 10:17 p.m. ET (TBS)
The Betting Line: Arizona -9
The Challenge: Putting pressure on the Wildcats
It has been a long time since Arizona played a very close game—of its last 10 games, only three were decided by 10 points or fewer, and none were decided by less than six. The other seven wins all came by at least 15 points.
So Xavier’s key to stopping Arizona’s 13-game winning streak is going to be pressure, pressure, pressure to see if the Wildcats can sustain a tight, physical contest mentally and physically. Xavier has a strong inside presence led by Matt Stainbrook, and he’s going to make sure the Wildcats feel his force.
The Noteworthy Numbers
Xavier isn’t known for a high-powered offense, but shooting 67.6 percent from the field in the round of 32, the third-highest field-goal percentage for any team in the last 15 NCAA tournaments (via ESPN Stats & Information), has changed that.
Considering that Arizona has scored over 90 points in three games this month already, Xavier is going to have to keep that accuracy up to stay in the game.
The X-factor: The coaching matchup
Xavier coach Chris Mack will be very familiar with his next opponent’s coach, Sean Miller, considering that Mack was Miller’s right-hand man during his five years as the head coach of Xavier.
“It’s hard to play against one of your best friends in the business,” Mack admitted, as reported by The Associated Press (via ESPN).
Upset Meter Reading: 3.8/10
Joe Robbins/Getty Images
When: Friday at 7:15 p.m. ET (CBS)
The Betting Line: Gonzaga -10
The Challenge: Stopping Gonzaga’s perimeter shooting
The Gonzaga Bulldogs have been on fire recently, and they’ve been particularly deadly from beyond the arc, going an astronomical 10-of-16 from outside in their round-of-32 win over No. 7 Iowa.
UCLA is going to have to use its speed and feistiness to keep the Bulldogs glued to the inside, where the Bruins might have a shot to expose Gonzaga’s lack of athleticism.
The Noteworthy Numbers
These two teams met three months ago when the Bruins lost to the Bulldogs 87-74 at home. Gonzaga dominated almost every facet of that game, shooting 58.5 percent from the field, 47.4 percent from behind the arc and 84.2 percent from the line. They also had 27 defensive rebounds.
While the Bruins have improved since December and are currently playing their best basketball of the year, the same is true for Gonzaga.
The X-factor: Bryce Alford
Bryce Alford has carried the Bruins through the first week of the tournament, and he’s going to need to be even more spectacular if UCLA wants to continue dancing.
He has 49 points so far in the tournament and shot a ridiculous 69.2 percent from the field in the team’s second-round upset over SMU. He will set the tone for the Bruins offensively in this one.
Upset Meter Reading: 2.7/10
Jared Wickerham/Getty Images
When: Friday at 7:37 p.m. ET (TBS)
The Betting Line: Louisville -1.5
The Challenge: Avoiding a letdown
The NC State Wolfpack are famous for being a team that can beat anyone on any given day. It’s the day after that tends to be a problem for the inconsistent and often undisciplined squad.
For example, after upsetting Duke this year, the Wolfpack lost four of their next five games, including defeats to Clemson and Miami. After upsetting North Carolina later in the season, NC State immediately lost to ACC bottom-dweller Boston College. Ouch.
NC State has everyone’s attention after upsetting No. 1 Villanova on Saturday, but the team needs to keep its focus and calm if it wants to keep dancing.
The Noteworthy Numbers
This is the first meeting of conference opponents so far in this NCAA tournament, and it should be a good one. While Louisville has been the better team throughout the season, NC State actually defeated the Cardinals in their only meeting, 74-65 in Louisville in February.
The Wolfpack can take a lot of confidence from that game: Cat Barber led the way with 21 points, and the team was able to hold Louisville’s offense to 32.8 percent shooting from the field.
That’s certainly a performance to build on.
The X-factor: Free-throw accuracy late in the game
OK, so this could be said about almost every NCAA tournament game, but this game will likely come down to the wire, and since both of these teams can be known for sloppy and erratic play, free throws will be key.
Neither of these teams has been sublime in this area this year: NC State has made 68.6 percent of its free throws, while Louisville has made 66.7 percent. Chances are the team that can do significantly better Friday will find itself in the Elite Eight.
Upset Meter Reading: 7.3/10
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When: Friday at 9:45 p.m. ET (CBS)
The Betting Line: Duke -4.5
The Challenge: Stopping Jahlil Okafor
Jahlil Okafor has been absolutely on fire so far in this NCAA tournament, going 21-of-27 from the field for 47 points, nine rebounds and five blocks in two games. Even for a national Player of the Year candidate, that’s ridiculous.
Utah has had a great defensive season, ranking 11th in the nation in points allowed, and the Utes have the size inside to match Okafor thanks to Jakob Poeltl and Dallin Bachynski. But of course, Okafor has much more than just size—he’s athletic, quick and agile too. His only weakness is free-throw shooting, something the Utes will have to try to expose.
The Noteworthy Numbers
For as well as the Blue Devils have been playing, this line doesn’t seem quite high enough. That’s because Utah actually matches up pretty well against Duke.
Delon Wright is one of the best guards in the country, averaging 14.9 points per game. Brandon Taylor is a significant threat from outside the arc, going 4-of-8 in the round of 32. Poeltl has the disruptive presence inside and an ability to score—he led the team with 18 points, eight rebounds and five blocks in the second round against Stephen F. Austin.
This will be a big challenge for a Duke team that hasn’t been tested in the NCAA tournament yet.
The X-factor: Foul trouble
In Utah’s game against Georgetown in the round of 32, Poeltl got into foul trouble early. Bachynski did a decent job filling in when Poeltl was being conserved, but against Duke, the Utes will need their best players on the court more often than not.
On the other hand, one of the best ways to beat Duke is to expose its limited rotation, and getting Okafor, Quinn Cook, Tyus Jones or Justise Winslow in foul trouble would certainly help accomplish that.
Upset Meter Reading: 4.1/10
Jamie Sabau/Getty Images
When: Friday at 10:07 p.m. ET (TBS)
The Betting Line: Michigan State -2
The Challenge: Overcoming Michigan State’s defense*
Everyone had been talking about Virginia’s defense all year long, but in Michigan State’s upset over No. 2 Virginia on Sunday, it was the Spartans who were suffocating. The Cavaliers only shot 29.8 percent from the field and 11.8 percent from behind the arc.
Now, Oklahoma has a better offense than Virginia—most teams do, after all—but it will still take a supreme offensive effort to overcome an in-form Tom Izzo defense in March.
The Noteworthy Numbers
You want noteworthy numbers? Thanks to the upsets of No. 1 Villanova and No. 2 Virginia, Oklahoma is now the top seed remaining in the East Region, and Michigan State is the favorite to make the Final Four, according to oddsmakers.
That means the pressure is on for both of these teams to take advantage of one of the best gifts March can give to a Sweet 16 team: a busted bracket.
The X-factor: Buddy Hield
We’ve already mentioned that the Sooners are going to need to be at their best offensively if they want to have a shot, and that means a big day from Buddy Hield, the leader of their team and the Big 12 Player of the Year.
So far in this tournament, Hield has been OK, going 10-of-29 from the field for 30 points. But he’s going to need to take that up a notch against Michigan State, especially in making shots from beyond the arc, something Virginia couldn’t do.
Upset Meter Reading: 4.5/10
*Since Oklahoma is the underdog according to Vegas, this will be focused on how Oklahoma can get the upset over Michigan State, despite the seedings.
Odds are via
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Sweet 16 2015: Upset Meter for Every Game - Bleacher Report
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